Why Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East But Struggles Regarding Vladimir Putin Concerning Ukraine

Reports of an impending US-Russia presidential meeting have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.

Just days after President Trump announced he intended to confer with Russian President Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.

A preliminary get-together by the both countries' leading diplomats has been cancelled, as well.

"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump told the press at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I don't want a waste of time, so I will observe what happens."

• Donald Trump states he did not want a 'unproductive session' after plan for Putin talks postponed
• Letdown in Kyiv as President Zelensky departs White House without results

The on-again, off-again summit is just the latest development in the president's efforts to broker an conclusion to war in the Eastern European nation – a subject of increased attention for the US president after he orchestrated a ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreement in the Palestinian territory.

While making remarks in the North African country recently to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, Trump turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.

"It is essential to get the Russian situation done," he declared.

Nonetheless, the circumstances that aligned to make a Middle East success achievable for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for almost several years.

Reduced Influence

Per the lead negotiator, the crucial element to unlocking a deal was the Israeli government's move to attack Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a move that infuriated America's Arab allies but gave Trump leverage to compel Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.

The US president gained from a history of supporting Israel dating back to his first term, including his choice to move the US embassy to Jerusalem, to alter America's position on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, more recently, his backing for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.

The US president, in fact, is better regarded among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a position that gave him special sway over the nation's head.

Combine Trump's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the region, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to force an deal.

Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, the president has significantly reduced leverage. In recent months, he has swung between efforts to pressure Putin and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.

Trump has threatened to enact new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to provide Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could harm the global economy and further escalate the war.

Meanwhile, the US leader has publicly berated Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off information exchange with Ukraine and pausing arms shipments to the nation - only to then retreat in the wake of concerned European allies who caution a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the whole area.

The president loves to tout his ability to sit down and hammer out agreements, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to advance the hostilities any closer to a peaceful end.

Putin may actually be exploiting Trump's desire for a settlement – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a means of manipulating him.

During the summer, Russia's leader consented to a summit in the US state just as it appeared likely that the president would sign off on congressional sanctions package supported by Senate Republicans. That bill was afterwards delayed.

Recently, as news emerged that the White House was considering seriously sending long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the president of Russia phoned the US president who then touted the potential meeting in Hungary.

The following day, the president hosted Zelensky at the executive residence, but left without agreements after a allegedly tense meeting.

Trump maintained that he was not being played by the Russian president.

"You know, I've been played all my life by skilled operators, and I emerged successfully," he remarked.

But the Ukrainian leader later made note of the timeline of developments.

"Once the issue of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for us – for Ukraine – the Russian side quickly became less engaged in negotiations," he said.

So, in a short period, Trump has bounced from considering the idea of providing weapons to Ukraine to organizing a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and confidentially pressuring Zelensky to surrender all of Donbas – even territory Russian forces has been unable to conquer.

He has finally settled on calling for a truce along current battle lines – a proposal the Russian government has rejected.

On the campaign trail previously, Trump vowed that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has since abandoned that commitment, saying that concluding the hostilities is proving harder than he anticipated.

It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his power – and the challenge of finding a peace plan when neither side wants, or can afford to, give up the fight.