Starmer's Backers Initiate 'Block Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Return

Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly started a concerted campaign to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to the House of Commons. This action comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an upcoming byelection.

Significant Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Procedure

Multiple figures on the party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have apparently suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection process. This is primarily due to the significant presence of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are desperate to avoid any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour hierarchy is said to have mobilised following the announcement of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he caused consternation in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had encouraged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially stand for the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would solely re-enter Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Amid opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all before any possible bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have reportedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

Several sources also expressed concerns about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. It is also possible the body could impose an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.

The trade unions occupy a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The seat in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a significant campaign, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.

The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an inappropriate online group.