Elections Underway in the Netherlands as Surveys Point to Potential Repeat Win for Geert Wilders

Elections are now in progress for general elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data indicating that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, though analysts believe PVV stands little chance of being part of the future coalition.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which in the last election pulled off a surprise top result and formed a multi-party all-conservative coalition that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in the polls and is forecast to win between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat house of representatives.

Nevertheless, PVV's support has declined since 2023, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not entering into a coalition with the PVV leader, and who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in June over disagreements concerning his radical immigration plans.

Key Contenders and Projections

At the end of a campaign dominated by issues such as immigration, medical expenses, and the nation's acute housing shortage, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, projected to win between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist Democrats 66, predicted to boost its representation by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is expected to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the PVV, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all projected to lose seats, with some experiencing significant declines.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Of the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and for sport – as many as 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This high degree of fragmentation means that no one party is ever likely to secure a majority, and Holland has been governed by multi-party governments – typically composed of four parties in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the PVV becomes the largest party yet is shut out of power. However, opponents and experts argue that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

Although the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations may require months, political observers suggest that after the most radical administration in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based coalition led by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, including those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, opened at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm. A usually accurate exit poll is expected soon after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could command a majority in the legislature. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.